[摘要] 商品房投资总额增速回落0.5个百分点。商品房销售面积增速回落1.4个百分点。商品房销售额增速回落1.5个百分点。
RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; WIDOWS: 2; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-STYLE: normal; TEXT-INDENT: 28px !important; MARGIN: 0px 0px 30px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Microsoft YaHei', 宋体; WHITE-SPACE: normal; ORPHANS: 2; COLOR: rgb(52,52,52); FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-: 0px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">国家统计局日前公布了1-5月份房地产销售数据。
RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; WIDOWS: 2; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-STYLE: normal; TEXT-INDENT: 28px !important; MARGIN: 0px 0px 30px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Microsoft YaHei', 宋体; WHITE-SPACE: normal; ORPHANS: 2; COLOR: rgb(52,52,52); FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-: 0px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">从数据来看，房地产呈现出两种趋势。
RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; WIDOWS: 2; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-STYLE: normal; TEXT-INDENT: 28px !important; MARGIN: 0px 0px 30px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Microsoft YaHei', 宋体; WHITE-SPACE: normal; ORPHANS: 2; COLOR: rgb(52,52,52); FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-: 0px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">趋势一：各种“增速”在下行。
RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; WIDOWS: 2; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-STYLE: normal; TEXT-INDENT: 28px !important; MARGIN: 0px 0px 30px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Microsoft YaHei', 宋体; WHITE-SPACE: normal; ORPHANS: 2; COLOR: rgb(52,52,52); FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-: 0px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">商品房投资总额增速回落0.5个百分点。商品房销售面积增速回落1.4个百分点。商品房销售额增速回落1.5个百分点。
RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: center; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; WIDOWS: 2; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-STYLE: normal; TEXT-INDENT: 28px !important; MARGIN: 0px 0px 30px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Microsoft YaHei', 宋体; WHITE-SPACE: normal; ORPHANS: 2; COLOR: rgb(52,52,52); FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-: 0px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">
RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; WIDOWS: 2; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-STYLE: normal; TEXT-INDENT: 28px !important; MARGIN: 0px 0px 30px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Microsoft YaHei', 宋体; WHITE-SPACE: normal; ORPHANS: 2; COLOR: rgb(52,52,52); FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-: 0px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">趋势二：东中西部的房地产销售进一步分化。简单说中西部开始迎头赶上。
RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; WIDOWS: 2; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-STYLE: normal; TEXT-INDENT: 28px !important; MARGIN: 0px 0px 30px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Microsoft YaHei', 宋体; WHITE-SPACE: normal; ORPHANS: 2; COLOR: rgb(52,52,52); FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-: 0px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">下图是1-5月份的房地产销售状况。
RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: center; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; WIDOWS: 2; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-STYLE: normal; TEXT-INDENT: 28px !important; MARGIN: 0px 0px 30px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Microsoft YaHei', 宋体; WHITE-SPACE: normal; ORPHANS: 2; COLOR: rgb(52,52,52); FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-: 0px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">
RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; WIDOWS: 2; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-STYLE: normal; TEXT-INDENT: 28px !important; MARGIN: 0px 0px 30px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Microsoft YaHei', 宋体; WHITE-SPACE: normal; ORPHANS: 2; COLOR: rgb(52,52,52); FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-: 0px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">
RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: center; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; WIDOWS: 2; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-STYLE: normal; TEXT-INDENT: 28px !important; MARGIN: 0px 0px 30px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Microsoft YaHei', 宋体; WHITE-SPACE: normal; ORPHANS: 2; COLOR: rgb(52,52,52); FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-: 0px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">
RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; WIDOWS: 2; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-STYLE: normal; TEXT-INDENT: 28px !important; MARGIN: 0px 0px 30px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Microsoft YaHei', 宋体; WHITE-SPACE: normal; ORPHANS: 2; COLOR: rgb(52,52,52); FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-: 0px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">对比可以明显看出，中部地区商品房销售增速扩大，而西部地区商品房销售增速则明显加快。
RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; WIDOWS: 2; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-STYLE: normal; TEXT-INDENT: 28px !important; MARGIN: 0px 0px 30px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Microsoft YaHei', 宋体; WHITE-SPACE: normal; ORPHANS: 2; COLOR: rgb(52,52,52); FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-: 0px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">造成这种情况的原因有很多，但总体上跟当前的各地区商品房市场环境有直接关系。
RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; WIDOWS: 2; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-STYLE: normal; TEXT-INDENT: 28px !important; MARGIN: 0px 0px 30px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Microsoft YaHei', 宋体; WHITE-SPACE: normal; ORPHANS: 2; COLOR: rgb(52,52,52); FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-: 0px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">一二线楼市未来会进一步企稳，甚至增速有可能转负，这种情况可能会维持相当长的时间。
RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; WIDOWS: 2; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-STYLE: normal; TEXT-INDENT: 28px !important; MARGIN: 0px 0px 30px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Microsoft YaHei', 宋体; WHITE-SPACE: normal; ORPHANS: 2; COLOR: rgb(52,52,52); FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-: 0px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">一二线城市，特别是一线城市的房地产销售面积，之所以会表现出增速停滞或者下滑，其实更重要的原因在于上游的土地，一线城市当前已经明确了下面这种思路：抛弃以往的摊大饼式发展模式，转而走集约化思路。也就是说大规模的供地基本上不会出现了，后续新建商品房主要是通过城市改造来获取，而后面这种方式获得土地难度更大，因为地段好，又有人口的安置的问题，现在搞这种玩法，很可能会导致商品房售价后续继续涨。
RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; WIDOWS: 2; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-STYLE: normal; TEXT-INDENT: 28px !important; MARGIN: 0px 0px 30px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Microsoft YaHei', 宋体; WHITE-SPACE: normal; ORPHANS: 2; COLOR: rgb(52,52,52); FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-: 0px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">一二线城市现有的这些资源，也被用于新建租房和自住型商品房，所以后续纯商品房的销售数据也不会有什么惊艳的表现。
RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; WIDOWS: 2; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-STYLE: normal; TEXT-INDENT: 28px !important; MARGIN: 0px 0px 30px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Microsoft YaHei', 宋体; WHITE-SPACE: normal; ORPHANS: 2; COLOR: rgb(52,52,52); FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-: 0px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">但一二线城市的需求仍然存在，为了破除这一困境。一二线城市，特别是一线城市采取了非对称式的供应调节方案和需求调节方案。
RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; WIDOWS: 2; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-STYLE: normal; TEXT-INDENT: 28px !important; MARGIN: 0px 0px 30px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Microsoft YaHei', 宋体; WHITE-SPACE: normal; ORPHANS: 2; COLOR: rgb(52,52,52); FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-: 0px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">所谓非对称式，意思是以往那种有多少需要卖房子，我就盖多少房子模式被舍弃，转而将需求转移至租房和自住型商品房上，租房相对低端，自住型商品房的申请门槛更高，基本上是为了留住年轻高素质人口而准备的。
RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; WIDOWS: 2; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-STYLE: normal; TEXT-INDENT: 28px !important; MARGIN: 0px 0px 30px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Microsoft YaHei', 宋体; WHITE-SPACE: normal; ORPHANS: 2; COLOR: rgb(52,52,52); FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-: 0px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">总体来看，对待三类购房者，一二线城市采取了三种截然不同的策略：
RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; WIDOWS: 2; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-STYLE: normal; TEXT-INDENT: 28px !important; MARGIN: 0px 0px 30px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Microsoft YaHei', 宋体; WHITE-SPACE: normal; ORPHANS: 2; COLOR: rgb(52,52,52); FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-: 0px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">如果你是刚需，那么你今后买房的可能性会降低不少，现在已经很明显的一种趋势是将刚需转移至租房和自住型商品房上。相对买商品房来说，这是一种更加低端的解决需求的方式。简单说，如果你是刚需，我就只解决你住的问题，至于其他的需求，买不买房，你们自己去竞争，我不管。但刚需面临的会是更加激烈的竞争，因为地少了，房子少了，人没有少。
RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; WIDOWS: 2; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-STYLE: normal; TEXT-INDENT: 28px !important; MARGIN: 0px 0px 30px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Microsoft YaHei', 宋体; WHITE-SPACE: normal; ORPHANS: 2; COLOR: rgb(52,52,52); FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-: 0px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">如果你是改善，则尽可能将你的换房或二套房的需求尽可能延期，能延期多久就延期多久。对于改善人群，本身支付能力较强，他们是有能力换套更好的房子的，对于这类人策略就是尽可能让他们在感到换房风险而选择观望，即使不能，也应该走“一套换一套”的方式，而不是持有一套再买一套的方式。
RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; WIDOWS: 2; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-STYLE: normal; TEXT-INDENT: 28px !important; MARGIN: 0px 0px 30px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Microsoft YaHei', 宋体; WHITE-SPACE: normal; ORPHANS: 2; COLOR: rgb(52,52,52); FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-: 0px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">如果你是投资，没有二话，这个市场不欢迎你，硬要闯进来，结果就是关门打狗。
RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; WIDOWS: 2; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-STYLE: normal; TEXT-INDENT: 28px !important; MARGIN: 0px 0px 30px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Microsoft YaHei', 宋体; WHITE-SPACE: normal; ORPHANS: 2; COLOR: rgb(52,52,52); FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-: 0px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">总结一下，一二线的思路是不关闭大门，但逐渐收窄，要实现的目标就是严格掌握人口增量，进而掌握因人口产生的增量置业需求。上面说了，供应端基本上很难打开局面，所以未来相当长的时间内会执行目前的“5限”策略，以时间换空间。
RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; WIDOWS: 2; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-STYLE: normal; TEXT-INDENT: 28px !important; MARGIN: 0px 0px 30px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Microsoft YaHei', 宋体; WHITE-SPACE: normal; ORPHANS: 2; COLOR: rgb(52,52,52); FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-: 0px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">政策有其目的，但楼市也有其基本面。楼市的基本面至少有这么几点：
RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; WIDOWS: 2; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-STYLE: normal; TEXT-INDENT: 28px !important; MARGIN: 0px 0px 30px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Microsoft YaHei', 宋体; WHITE-SPACE: normal; ORPHANS: 2; COLOR: rgb(52,52,52); FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-: 0px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">1、城镇化仍然会继续，而且主要为大城市化，这些大城市及周边的小城市长期来看，是有优势的，至于其他的三四线城市长期来看，是留不住人的；
RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; WIDOWS: 2; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-STYLE: normal; TEXT-INDENT: 28px !important; MARGIN: 0px 0px 30px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Microsoft YaHei', 宋体; WHITE-SPACE: normal; ORPHANS: 2; COLOR: rgb(52,52,52); FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-: 0px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">2、大城市的人均住房面积是够的，但是对大城市来说，仅仅算人均住房面积是远远不够的，因为它是大城市，房子不仅是一堆钢筋混凝土。
RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; WIDOWS: 2; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-STYLE: normal; TEXT-INDENT: 28px !important; MARGIN: 0px 0px 30px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Microsoft YaHei', 宋体; WHITE-SPACE: normal; ORPHANS: 2; COLOR: rgb(52,52,52); FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-: 0px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">3、我们的商品房购房者受人口结构，家庭结构，伦理关系等因素影响，购房时间要比西方提前很多。20多岁买房的比比皆是，当然资金可能是两个家庭一块凑的。这种现象还将长期维持。
RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; WIDOWS: 2; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-STYLE: normal; TEXT-INDENT: 28px !important; MARGIN: 0px 0px 30px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Microsoft YaHei', 宋体; WHITE-SPACE: normal; ORPHANS: 2; COLOR: rgb(52,52,52); FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-: 0px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">4、愿意买房的仍然占大多数，选择租房的往往是不得已而为之。
RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; WIDOWS: 2; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-STYLE: normal; TEXT-INDENT: 28px !important; MARGIN: 0px 0px 30px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Microsoft YaHei', 宋体; WHITE-SPACE: normal; ORPHANS: 2; COLOR: rgb(52,52,52); FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-: 0px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">5、地价和房价的扭曲力，一定会释放，成品比原材料还便宜，难以想象能长期维持下去。
RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; WIDOWS: 2; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-STYLE: normal; TEXT-INDENT: 28px !important; MARGIN: 0px 0px 30px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Microsoft YaHei', 宋体; WHITE-SPACE: normal; ORPHANS: 2; COLOR: rgb(52,52,52); FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-: 0px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">基本面没有问题，意味着虽然政策鼓励租房，但很多人仍会硬着头皮去买房。这个时候选择买房的时机很重要，买房是瞬时行为，有房子则是长期行为，成本不得不考虑。
RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; WIDOWS: 2; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-STYLE: normal; TEXT-INDENT: 28px !important; MARGIN: 0px 0px 30px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Microsoft YaHei', 宋体; WHITE-SPACE: normal; ORPHANS: 2; COLOR: rgb(52,52,52); FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-: 0px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">就好比现在，刚需买房并不合适，因为银行对刚需不友好，需要等一等。其实好的苗头已经出现，只不过还未出现质变。请看下图：
RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: center; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; WIDOWS: 2; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-STYLE: normal; TEXT-INDENT: 28px !important; MARGIN: 0px 0px 30px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Microsoft YaHei', 宋体; WHITE-SPACE: normal; ORPHANS: 2; COLOR: rgb(52,52,52); FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-: 0px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">
RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; WIDOWS: 2; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-STYLE: normal; TEXT-INDENT: 28px !important; MARGIN: 0px 0px 30px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Microsoft YaHei', 宋体; WHITE-SPACE: normal; ORPHANS: 2; COLOR: rgb(52,52,52); FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-: 0px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">
RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; WIDOWS: 2; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-STYLE: normal; TEXT-INDENT: 28px !important; MARGIN: 0px 0px 30px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Microsoft YaHei', 宋体; WHITE-SPACE: normal; ORPHANS: 2; COLOR: rgb(52,52,52); FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-: 0px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">首先，这条消息的发布单位可不是银行的主管部门，而是价监局。说明，各家银行已经形成了类似“同盟”的关系，一致提高贷款利率，这是不被允许的。
RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; WIDOWS: 2; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-STYLE: normal; TEXT-INDENT: 28px !important; MARGIN: 0px 0px 30px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Microsoft YaHei', 宋体; WHITE-SPACE: normal; ORPHANS: 2; COLOR: rgb(52,52,52); FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-: 0px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">其次，就是关于约定存款利率上限和首套房个贷利率折扣问题。这里信息量更大。大概意思是这段时间以来，银行吸纳存款成本的确比较高，但对于首套房仍然应该给予照顾，贯彻“差别化信贷”的目标。
RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; WIDOWS: 2; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-STYLE: normal; TEXT-INDENT: 28px !important; MARGIN: 0px 0px 30px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Microsoft YaHei', 宋体; WHITE-SPACE: normal; ORPHANS: 2; COLOR: rgb(52,52,52); FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-: 0px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">第三，至于银行存款成本提高的问题，其实还有更多的选择，除了去花高价吸收存款，还可以依靠央行的廉价资金支持。
RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; WIDOWS: 2; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-STYLE: normal; TEXT-INDENT: 28px !important; MARGIN: 0px 0px 30px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Microsoft YaHei', 宋体; WHITE-SPACE: normal; ORPHANS: 2; COLOR: rgb(52,52,52); FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-: 0px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">请注意这是16日的消息，新华社随后于17日刊文称：
RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; WIDOWS: 2; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-STYLE: normal; TEXT-INDENT: 28px !important; MARGIN: 0px 0px 30px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Microsoft YaHei', 宋体; WHITE-SPACE: normal; ORPHANS: 2; COLOR: rgb(52,52,52); FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-: 0px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">这两条消息，足以说明未来刚需在贷款方面会重新得到照顾。
RDER-BOTTOM: 0px; TEXT-ALIGN: left; BORDER-LEFT: 0px; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; LINE-HEIGHT: 30px; WIDOWS: 2; TEXT-TRANSFORM: none; BACKGROUND-COLOR: rgb(255,255,255); FONT-STYLE: normal; TEXT-INDENT: 28px !important; MARGIN: 0px 0px 30px; OUTLINE-STYLE: none; OUTLINE-COLOR: invert; PADDING-LEFT: 0px; OUTLINE-WIDTH: 0px; LETTER-SPACING: normal; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; FONT-FAMILY: 'Microsoft YaHei', 宋体; WHITE-SPACE: normal; ORPHANS: 2; COLOR: rgb(52,52,52); FONT-SIZE: 16px; BORDER-: 0px; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-RIGHT: 0px; WORD-SPACING: 0px; PADDING-: 0px; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px">还是那句话，楼市长期看基本面，但短期则因为政策的变化而变得复杂，掌握时机入市对于刚需来说很重要。
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